‘Deaths may reduce to 40K if…’ What SBI says on third wave

It warned of the second wave well in time even if it could not be heeded. Then it gave the correct prediction about the peak of the second wave. Now the SBI team is back with the detailed predictions of the third wave of Covid-19. So brace yourself for the third wave of the COVID pandemic, which may last for around 98 days. Though its severity could be less than that of the second wave if the country could control the serious cases with better health infrastructure preparedness and rigorous vaccination. Even in that scenario, the number of deaths could reach 40 thousand during the third wave in India, forecasts the State Bank of India team.

In the latest report released on 1 June 2021, the SBI highlighted the observation that the average duration of the third wave for the top countries has been 98 days while the length of the second wave has been 108 days. The trend has been that the third wave peak will be a multiple of second at 1.8 and the second wave as a multiple of first at 5.2 (for India it was at 4.2).

Thus the SBI said that as per the International experience the intensity of the third wave will be as severe as the second one. However, it is also observed that in the third wave if we are better prepared, the decline in serious case rate will lead to a fewer number of deaths.

‘We find out that if serious cases decline from 20% to 5% (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, then the number of deaths in the third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000 as compared to the current deaths of more than 1.7 lakh, says the SBI report.

Further, the SBI suggests that vaccination should be the key priority in India, especially for the children who could be the next vulnerable group. With around 15-17 crore children in the 12-18 age bracket, India should go for an advanced procurement strategy like that adopted by developed nations to inoculate this age group, the SBI urged.

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